國球旗:選舉人票係一種好吊詭既制度，
當年戈爾全國贏布殊 50 萬票，
因為布殊贏左佛羅里達，
反而咁樣贏左大選，
.......
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睇返現時的選舉人票分佈︰
obama 應該可以穩奪 261票，romney 則有 235票。
係 270票就可以奪得總統寶座之下，obama 現時勝算當然甚高，而 romney 就差不多需要係五個搖擺州份贏最少四個，甚至贏晒先有機會。
附現時八個兵家所爭之州份︰
Here’s how we size up all eight states at the moment:
COLORADO (
Pre-convention RealClearPolitics polling average on Aug. 26: Obama 47.6%, Romney 46.0%; current average: Obama 48.2%, Romney 47.7%) — We’ve been hearing that Romney is slightly up in Colorado, but it’s still a toss-up. Colorado is probably more important to Romney than Obama in the Electoral College, although if Obama loses Ohio
and Colorado he probably won’t win.
TOSS-UP FLORIDA (
Pre-convention average: Obama, Romney tied at 46.3%; current average: Romney 49.1%, Obama 47.9%) — We’ve thought for weeks that Romney held the upper hand in Florida, but note that Romney spent his Wednesday in the Sunshine State; if it were truly locked up for him, there would be other, better places for him to go at campaign’s end.
LEANS REPUBLICAN IOWA (
Pre-convention average: Obama 45.3%, Romney 44.3%; current average: Obama 47.8%, Romney 46.5%) — Newspaper endorsements typically aren’t worth the paper they’re printed on, but sometimes — when they are unpredictable — they can have a measurable effect. That’s the way we feel about the
Des Moines Register’s
splashy endorsement of Mitt Romney on Sunday, its first GOP presidential pick since Richard Nixon in 1972. The endorsement — and, more importantly, the paucity of public polling in the state — lead us to call Iowa a
TOSS-UP.
NEVADA (
Pre-convention average: Obama 49.0%, Romney 44.8%; Current average: Obama 50.0%, Romney 47.6%) — We know a lot about Nevada because of its robust early voting. Swingy Washoe County (Reno) is about even in early voting, and the Democrats are building a big advantage in Clark County (Las Vegas). That should be enough to cancel out the remaining conservative parts of the state. Despite enthusiastic backing for Romney among the state’s Mormon population, we continue to believe Obama leads here.
LEANS DEMOCRATIC NEW HAMPSHIRE (
Pre-convention average: Obama 48.3%, Romney 44.8%; Current average: Obama 48.7%, Romney 47.7%) — With its small bounty of electoral votes, the Granite State could mean nothing — or everything — on Election Day. (Had Al Gore won it in 2000, he would have been president, whatever happened in Florida.) Democrats are confident of holding it, but we see it as too close to call.
TOSS-UP OHIO (
Pre-convention average: Obama 46.8%, Romney 45.2%; Current average: Obama 48.9%, Romney 46.6%) — Gov. John Kasich (R) proclaimed the other day that Mitt Romney would carry the Buckeye State, but the weight of polling evidence and many on-the-ground reports we have received suggest otherwise. In all likelihood Obama retains a lead of a point or two — though our sources differ as to whether the president’s edge is sturdy or fragile.
LEANS DEMOCRATIC VIRGINIA (
Pre-convention average: Obama 47.3%, Romney 46.7%; Current average Romney 47.9%, Obama 47.4%) — We essentially feel the same way about Virginia that we feel about Ohio, except in reverse: here, Romney probably has a very small lead — though Obama’s Ohio polling lead is more robust than Romney’s Virginia advantage. Once again, our best, frankest sources are emphatic but in opposite directions. Republicans insist Romney will win Virginia, and Democrats appear almost equally sure in the other direction.
TOSS-UP WISCONSIN (
Pre-convention average: Obama 48.2%, Romney 46.8%; Current average: Obama 49.8%, Romney 45.8%) — Obama got a big polling boost Wednesday when the respected Marquette Law School Poll found Obama up eight points in Wisconsin, up from one point just two weeks ago. (Wednesday was, in general, a good polling day for the president.) However, some Republicans seem to think that Wisconsin might be a better target than Ohio, so we want to see what the GOP throws into the Badger State at the end.
TOSS-UP http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/president-too-close-to-call-democrats-hold-senate-edge-prior-to-final-weekend/ [ 此帖被火鳳凰在2012-11-05 12:29重新編輯 ]
