特朗普宣布競逐連任　強調要「保持美國強大」 [復制鏈接]

羅力亞:未必
swing state 競爭好緊
有d poll 同stat估trump swing state 有優勢 (2020-10-28 11:32) 

BREAKING: Trump takes 4-point lead in Florida per new poll.

Trump: 48
Biden: 44
JJ: 2

W/Leaners

Trump: 48.5
Biden: 44
JJ: 2

Same poll, same methodology last month had Biden +3. Internals show Trump closing the gap with women & LEADING w Independents.

First post-debate tracking in Pennsylvania.
@JoeBiden
gained 0.2% after pushing appx. 4% of the 6.6% undecideds.
@realDonaldTrump
rose from 44.6% to 46.5%, boosted by younger workers, 18.9% black and 1/4 support in Philly.

FL In Person Early Vote
Rs +354,482

Ds went into election day 2016 with an 88,000 lead. Rs are 266,482 from going into election day even.

Trump won FL by 113,000

Rs now just 153,483 from covering Trump's margin.

This will be bloody. They don't even see it coming.

NEW POLL SHOWS TRUMP +4 IN FLORIDA

"Donald Trump has taken a 4-point lead over Joe Biden in Florida according to a new survey by Susquehanna Polling and Research for the Center for American Greatness."

Trump 48
Biden  44

(Was Biden +3 last month)

One Week From Election Day--Trump APPROVAL at 51%--4 Pts Higher than Obama's on this Day in 2012:

Trump (10/27/2020): 51%
Obama (10/27/2012): 47%

(per Rasmussen Reports)
(NOTE: 2012 was Obama's successful re-election year)

以上post既都係用比較中立/權威既傳統民調
同exit poll做既stat

TLDR 既結論係:

1. DEMS多數mail in/early voting, REP就會等election day先投
2. DEMS mail in/early voting有優勢，但冇expect赢咁多
3. 部份swing states trump支持度已經貼近甚至反超sleep joe
Florida 應該繼續紅色
4. 搖擺賓州同MI好關鍵

利伸: 我好多TERMS都係一知半解
都係9up下
但差距肯定冇傳統民調咁大

同埋
trump 黨內支持度有九成幾
反而sleepy joe不足八成
你睇trump d rallies人山人海就知
trump既動員能力真係好強
琴日連踩三個state

羅力亞:以上post既都係用比較中立/權威既傳統民調
同exit poll做既stat
TLDR 既結論係:
....... (2020-10-28 11:54) 

係囉 我就係見d傳統民調拜登贏到開行

怒射角球旗:係囉 我就係見d傳統民調拜登贏到開行[表情]
 (2020-10-28 14:10) 

如果今次trump赢
傳統民調呢行可以收皮

美國最高法院裁定北卡州大選後9日內仍可點算郵寄選票

美國最高法院以5票對3票維持下級法院的裁決，裁定北卡羅來納州在大選日後9日內，都可以繼續點算郵寄選票。獲特朗普提名的新任保守派大法官巴雷特，因為未有足夠時間檢視文件，無參與裁決。州選舉委員會早前以美國郵政總局可能未能趕及派送郵件為由，決定接受在大選日後9日內寄到的選票，但共和黨總統特朗普競選陣營反對，並提出訴訟。民主黨籍的北卡州總檢察長歡迎最高法院的裁決，強調在大選日或之前印上郵戳的選票，才會被計算。特朗普一直批評郵寄投票充斥欺詐行為，會造成選舉舞弊，但專家認為欺詐情況極為罕見。

2020-10-29 10:45:13

羅力亞:[圖片] (2020-10-29 10:03) 

trump trump