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有冇好友知咩叫 error variance of the forecast? [復制鏈接]

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離線雲佬~~SY
 
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只看樓主 倒序閱讀 使用道具 樓主   發表于: 2010-04-04
as title..

同埋有冇條EQUATION?
[ 本文被sy0250358在2010-04-08 22:12重新編輯 ]
離線kylau
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只看該作者 1  發表于: 2010-04-05
Reasons for interest rate change

  * Deferred consumption
    When money is loaned the lender delays spending the money on consumption goods. Since according to time preference theory people prefer goods now to goods later, in a free market there will be a positive interest rate.

  * Inflationary expectations
    Most economies generally exhibit inflation, meaning a given amount of money buys fewer goods in the future than it will now. The borrower needs to compensate the lender for this.

  * Alternative investments
    The lender has a choice between using his money in different investments. If he chooses one, he forgoes the returns from all the others. Different investments effectively compete for funds.

  * Risks of investment
    There is always a risk that the borrower will go bankrupt, abscond, or otherwise default on the loan. This means that a lender generally charges a risk premium to ensure that, across his investments, he is compensated for those that fail.

  * Liquidity preference
    People prefer to have their resources available in a form that can immediately be exchanged, rather than a form that takes time or money to realise.

  * Taxes
    Because some of the gains from interest may be subject to taxes, the lender may insist on a higher rate to make up for this loss.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interest_rate
離線丹尼屎
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只看該作者 2  發表于: 2010-04-05
咩 level 架!?
離線hohoho2
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只看該作者 3  發表于: 2010-04-05
引用第2樓丹尼屎2010-04-05 17:44發表的“”:
咩 level 架!? [表情] [表情]

大學
離線智者
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只看該作者 4  發表于: 2010-04-05
引用第2樓丹尼屎2010-04-05 17:44發表的“”:
咩 level 架!? [表情] [表情]


大學lv

簡單既就係通識lv
  
離線雲佬~~SY
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只看該作者 5  發表于: 2010-04-05
其實依份係HW 黎..

http://www.se.cuhk.edu.hk/~seg3570/hw8.pdf

有興趣者可以CLICK 入去睇下第1(C) 同你2條,睇下你地識唔識答..
離線丹尼屎
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只看該作者 6  發表于: 2010-04-05
引用第4樓智者2010-04-05 17:56發表的“”:
大學lv[表情]
簡單既就係通識lv [表情]

係大學都好 d .....
離線kylau
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只看該作者 7  發表于: 2010-04-05
引用第6樓丹尼屎2010-04-05 20:16發表的“”:
係大學都好 d ..... [表情]


Yes...also can be
found in CFA, level 1 for Q1c, level 2 for Q2.....
離線丹尼屎
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只看該作者 8  發表于: 2010-04-05
引用第7樓kylau2010-04-05 23:05發表的“”:
Yes...also can be
found in CFA, level 1 for Q1c, level 2 for Q2.....

CFA 係咩?
離線kylau
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只看該作者 9  發表于: 2010-04-06
引用第8樓丹尼屎2010-04-05 23:26發表的“”:
CFA 係咩? [表情]


Chartered Financial Analyst, a professional qualification / title in the finance world.
離線迪神
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只看該作者 10  發表于: 2010-04-06
搭單問,聯繫匯率又點樣影響interest rate的?

有冇得淺白少少,hkma果個睇完都一舊雲咁~
離線kylau
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只看該作者 11  發表于: 2010-04-06
引用第10樓迪神2010-04-06 11:19發表的“”:
搭單問,聯繫匯率又點樣影響interest rate的? [表情]
有冇得淺白少少,hkma果個睇完都一舊雲咁~ [表情] [表情] [表情]



Now, take HKD and USD as example
The FX rate is at round 7.75, with flutations around it.

A drop in interest rate in US will lead to a higher interest rate in HK comparatively. HKD would become more attractive and thereby leads to a capital inflow from US to HK. There will be a BOP (balance of payment) surplus in HK, as a result of a rise in demand for HKD. Under the pegged exchange rate regime, the process of arbitrage will occur whenever there is BOP imbalance. The note-issuing banks will buy the USD and sell the HKD in exchange market, so as to capture the differential gain. The money supply in HK will rise during this process. As a result, the interest rate in HK will finally decrease.


One more point you can consider is inflation rate. Inflation rate difference between two currencies can also affect FX rate and interest rate.
離線辣椒仔
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只看該作者 12  發表于: 2010-04-06
嘩....你個份咁深的
離線辣椒仔
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只看該作者 13  發表于: 2010-04-06
引用第11樓kylau2010-04-06 12:31發表的“”:
Now, take HKD and USD as example
The FX rate is at round 7.75, with flutations around it.
.......


wow....

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只看該作者 14  發表于: 2010-04-06
引用第11樓kylau2010-04-06 12:31發表的「」:
Now, take HKD and USD as example
The FX rate is at round 7.75, with flutations around it.
.......

再搭單~

咁宜家美國經濟差,interest rate係唔係即係跌?

咁如果係跌既話,香港既interest rate就係咁升,但因為呢個基制,所以會balance番?



我零sense的~